2020s*AI Milestones:*GPT-4/5 released,rapid growth inmodel sizes(hundreds of billionsofparameters)【32†L25-L34】;deepfakes andchatbots widelyadopted in media;initial armsdeployments ofsemi-autonomousdrones【36†L148- L152】.2020s*Regulation:*Debates on AI safety,some laws enacted(e.g. EU AI Act), butno globalenforcement.2030s*AI Revolution:*Possible appearanceof human-level AI(AGI) by ~early 2030s(cumulative ≈50%chance)【28†L344-L349】【47†L225-L228】.2030s*Industry:* Majorityof industries adoptAI-drivenautomation;large-scaleunemployment &income shifts (WEF“Age ofDisplacement”scenario【12†L100-L109】).2030s*Politics:*AI-generatedpropagandadominates socialmedia; foreigninterference anddisinformation reachcrisislevels【14†L145-L153】【15†L99-L108】.2040s*AI Control:*Advanced AI (withreasoning) iscommon. Economicand political systemslargely run byalgorithms; risk ofautonomous militaryconflict escalates.2040s*Society:* Humansincreasingly relianton AI forpersonal/healthdecisions (de factoadvisory state).2050s-2060s+*Outcome:* Eitherglobalalignment/governanceprotocols stabilize AIdominance, orunchecked AI leadsto near-total control(or even existentialrisk). Continuedtrends suggestnear-certainty ofsome form of AI“control” withoutintervention
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Broad AI Timelines: Planning Under Uncertainty
Figure: Illustrative probability distribution for transformative AI (“AGI”) timelines (mode ≈2028, median ≈2030, long tail). This exemplifies the wide uncertainty experts assign. Even with a late median, there remains non-negligible chance (e.g. ~30%) in the coming decade. Our scenario probabilities above use similarly broad assumptions
2020s*AI Milestones:*GPT-4/5 released,rapid growth inmodel sizes(hundreds of billionsofparameters)【32†L25-L34】;deepfakes andchatbots widelyadopted in media;initial armsdeployments ofsemi-autonomousdrones【36†L148-L152】.2020s*Regulation:*Debates on AI safety,some laws enacted(e.g. EU AI Act), butno globalenforcement.2030s*AI Revolution:*Possible appearanceof human-level AI(AGI) by ~early 2030s(cumulative ≈50%chance)【28†L344-L349】【47†L225-L228】.2030s*Industry:* Majorityof industries adoptAI-drivenautomation;large-scaleunemployment &income shifts (WEF“Age ofDisplacement”scenario【12†L100-L109】).2030s*Politics:*AI-generatedpropagandadominates socialmedia; foreigninterference anddisinformation reachcrisislevels【14†L145-L153】【15†L99-L108】.2040s*AI Control:*Advanced AI (withreasoning) iscommon. Economicand political systemslargely run byalgorithms; risk ofautonomous militaryconflict escalates.2040s*Society:* Humansincreasingly relianton AI forpersonal/healthdecisions (de factoadvisory state).2050s-2060s+*Outcome:* Eitherglobalalignment/governanceprotocols stabilize AIdominance, orunchecked AI leadsto near-total control(or even existentialrisk). Continuedtrends suggestnear-certainty ofsome form of AI“control” withoutintervention.
Show code
Broad AI Timelines: Planning Under Uncertainty
Figure: Illustrative probability distribution for transformative AI (“AGI”) timelines (mode ≈2028, median ≈2030, long tail). This exemplifies the wide uncertainty experts assign. Even with a late median, there remains non-negligible chance (e.g. ~30%) in the coming decade. Our scenario probabilities above use similarly broad assumptions.
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